QB Could Cost Bills $44.4 Million This Season

By Paul Wanecski

You saw that correctly. Yes, the quarterback position in Buffalo could certainly cost the Bills over $44.4 million this season, an astronomical figure when compared across the league. This number is a compound of a few factors that would have to fall into place. While it does seem nearly insane to throw that much money into one position, it could actually happen this year. It is also avoidable.

Kirk Cousins
Many fans in Buffalo have been clamoring for a franchise quarterback and to be honest, may just want to make sure the Bills enter week one of the 2018 season with one under center, regardless if it comes in the draft or via free agency. Outside of Drew Brees, who is a free agent but is still likely to be retained in New Orleans, Cousins is at the top of the market. He will be rather expensive, thanks in part to the Washington organization who franchise tagged him twice while having no real intention on signing him to a long term contract. The ownership has never really been a believer that Cousin’s success was going to last and, in turn, would provide him with only a one year tender through the franchise tag. What this did was artificially inflate his value going into the free agent market. Last season, Cousins was paid $23.4 million. Spotrac.com has his market value set at a 5 year contract, worth roughly $25.6 million per season but we all know how free agency goes; Matthew Stafford recently signed a 5 year, $135 million extension (both players are the same age, 29), so expect that to be the closer to what Cousins will want. This makes him, on average, a $27 million a year player, or roughly 15% of the expected salary cap for 2018 (assuming the salary cap increases to $175 million).
 
The Draft
If the Bills do indeed sign Cousins, that does not exclude them from drafting a quarterback as well. Seattle paid Matt Flynn an absurd amount of money and in the same year drafted Russell Wilson who won the job. While that is a small comparison, it does highlight that teams don’t always place all their faith into one player, even though it appears that is where they put all their money. Two scenarios are prevalent here. With the addition of Cousins, it would be very unlikely that the Bills move up in the draft to secure a quarterback. Without him it is a totally different story. If the Bills still pull the trigger on drafting a quarterback at the 21st selection, that player will have a cap value of $2.3 million this season. If you are curious what the expected salary of each drafted position is, you can find a great guide here (https://overthecap.com/draft )
 
Nate Peterman
The Bills can keep or walk away from Peterman in this scenario and the cost would not be prohibitive. He is set to count $615,000 against the cap this year. If the team releases him, they would save around $435,000. All of this is a drop in the bucket, so again, for argument sake, we can assume the team retains him as a 3rd quarterback.
 
Tyrod Taylor
The team’s incumbent starter factors into this pretty heavily because he is currently on the roster. For the sake of argument, we are going to assume that he is released (or even traded for that matter, the numbers in this case wouldn’t be any different). Taylor’s contract is a little more complex than given credit, as it actually built out going into the 2021 season. He could have a total salary cap figure of around $18 million this year, but again, we are going to look at the team releasing him. If he is released prior to March 16th, the Bills can save $6 million in pending roster bonus money. Worst can scenario, the Bills retain Taylor long enough to pay his roster bonus but eventually release (since they need to make the decision prior to the draft), he could count as much at $14.64 million against the 2018 salary cap.
 
Worst-Case-Scenario
If the Bills sign Cousins ($27 million per year), draft a quarterback ($2.3 million this year), retain Peterman ($615k), and retain Taylor though roster bonus but eventually release him (as much as $14.64 million), the team will be spending, just in 2018, about $44.4 million at the quarterback position, roughly 25% of the projected salary cap. However, all these factors are liquid. The Bills could retain Taylor completely and draft someone and retain Peterman ($20.91 million if drafted at the 21st selection), they could release Taylor with a Post-June 1st designation pushing $15 million in salary cap penalty to 2019, sign Cousins and not draft anyone (around $30 million). The most affordable route may be to release Taylor as soon as possible, sign a journeyman, draft a quarterback and just go from there, however, I can't make an estimation on cost (unless instead of signing someone, they trade a late round pick for a player like Nick Foles...but I would prefer you stay off my lawn with torches and pitchforks, so we will just leave the previous scenarios as the most likely).
 
Is it possible the team picks up Taylor's option if they are unable to sign Cousins? Sure because the Bills are promised no one in the draft and the free agent market doesn’t give you a ton of attractive, affordable options. While the $44.4 million dollar figure is avoidable, one this is for certain and that is the decision on a quarterback is bound to be expensive one.