How Suh's Deal Impacts the Bills

by Paul Wanecski and Mario Granata
When Rex Ryan joined the Buffalo Bills following his time with the New York Jets, it was long assumed that he would be bringing some of his former players along with him. While the free agency period is just set to start on March 10th, the games between the Bills an Jets have already begun.  With the Bills extending McCoy and the Cleveland Browns, New York Jets and now the Miami Dolphins making deals prior to the free agency period, they have 'set the market' for how signings will occur come Tuesday.   

Ndamukong Suh, Miami Dolphins, 6-year, 114 million, 60 guaranteed
Going back to 2014, JJ Watt set the market value for elite defensive lineman when he signed his 6 year, 100 million dollar contract, which included 51.8 million in guaranteed money.  This is what inevitably lead to the Dolphins raising the bar for Suh.  Now, the market has been raised and the league has to take notice.

What this means for the Bills:
Taking a look at the comparison between Ndamukong Suh and Marcell Dareus, statistically speaking, there are some striking similarities as to the players involved.  The breakdown of both of their career stats when prorated over a 16 game season is remarkable.

Suh: 7.4 sacks, 37.1 tackles, 12.3 assisted tackles, 3.1 passes defensed.
Dareus: 7.2 sacks, 35.3 tackles, 16 assisted tackles, 2.79 passes defensed.

Thanks Miami. 

Josh McCown, Cleveland Browns, 3-year, 14 million, 6.25 guaranteed
With a free agent class that is pretty slim, setting the market for a 35-year-old who went 1-10 last year is a stretch.  The free agent quarterbacks that are on the market are younger and have a higher upside.  So look for the contracts for others to either match or be higher this offseason.

What this means for the Bills:
Due to the deal that was in the works for LeSean McCoy, the Bills were forced to use two draft picks on Matt Cassel.(see 5 Reasons the Bills Traded for Cassel)  Cassel’s deal is only for one year, and it is all base salary, so if the Bills want to cut ties with him, they can with no hit to their cap in the form of dead money.  The Bills didn't want to wait for the 32-year-old to hit the open market seeing as the Vikings would have inevitably cut him to make room for other signings.  They probably didn’t want to pay McCown the 6+ million in guaranteed money and are going all in with EJ Manuel. 

Its sink or swim time for EJ. 

David Harris, New York Jets, 3-year, 21.5 million, 15 guaranteed
After the trade of Kiko Alonso to the Eagles, a very obvious hole was created in the linebacker core with the pending loss of ILB Brandon Spikes and OLB Jerry Hughes. Given the assumed transition to a 3-4 defensive front going into the 2015 season, the Bills were thought to have eyes on 31-year-old linebacker David Harris. The Jets, following the trade of Kiko, undoubtedly recognized the gap in linebacker depth created by the move. Could this have forced them to bend on the details of the Harris contract knowing that he could be a major target for the Bills? Perhaps it was a factor, as the guaranteed money in the deal is a bit north of what most teams would have been comfortable offering at his age.  When one takes into account that Rey Maualuga signed in Cincinnati for 3-years, 15 million, 4.5 guaranteed, and is only 28-years old, you can see where the Jets were going here.

What this means for the Bills:
Keeping Harris off the Bills wasn't the only reason they pushed to get him signed before free agency began. This contract also sets market value at this position. Not only that, given the age of Harris (who was the teams leading tackler last season) his deal could actually raise the price of younger linebackers in the open market. Overpaying for a player is never the situation you want to be in, regardless of how much cap space the team may have.