When there is a matchup between 2 teams that both have winning records, usually the point spread tends to favor the home team. But with the uncertainty of the Buffalo Bills, and their new winning formula, the individuals in Vegas still aren’t believers yet, as the Bills are 1.5 point underdogs against the visiting Kansas City Chiefs. A closer look at the numbers should give fans an indication why that is the case.
Turnovers – Since the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs are evenly matched defensively, the game could come down to turnovers. Last year a 99-yard interception return ultimately did the Bills in with Jeff Tuel at the helm, and currently the Buffalo Bills are +7 in the turnover battle over the first 8 games. The Chiefs are -2, but have a very efficient quarterback in Alex Smith. It seems cliché to say, but the Bills have to get more chances for the offense, against a stingy Kansas City defense who are tops in the league.
Special Teams – In CJ Spiller’s absence, the Bills kickoff return is hovering around the 10-yard mark. The Chiefs, with the explosive Knile Davis are averaging 28-yards per return, and when that type of production is factored into the game, it makes the field position battle slanted in favor of Kansas City. In a tightly contested match-up, the Bills will have to be more productive on special teams if they are to be victorious Sunday.
X-Factor – The Buffalo Bills are currently 4-0 against teams that run primarily a 4-3 defensive front. If you are doing the math, that makes them 1-3 against teams who run a 3-4 with their only victory against the Jets. Kansas City, under Defensive Coordinator Bob Sutton runs a 3-4 defense. Sutton spent some time under Eric Mangini and later under Rex Ryan, so he is able to mix and match both fronts to confuse teams, and keep them guessing. The Bills are #1 in the league in sacks, with Kansas City #2, so if the Bills can’t figure out a way to defeat Sutton, and keep Orton upright, it could mean a long game for the Bills, and ultimately their fans.